Changes in Age Structure and the Challenges of Aging in Algeria: Prospects for 2045 (A Projection Study Using the Spectrum Program)

Abstract

In recent decades, Algeria has witnessed profound demographic transformations affecting various aspects of its population structure, particularly regarding the age composition of the population. There have been rapid changes in key demographic indicators due to significant improvements in health and living conditions and the expansion of medical services. These factors have contributed to a decrease in mortality rates and an increase in life expectancy at birth, alongside a decline in fertility rates. This has directly impacted the age structure of the population, leading to a gradual change in the distribution of age groups. The Algerian society has transitioned from a demographic pattern characterized by a high proportion of young people and a dominance of younger age groups to a more balanced pattern where the importance of older age groups is increasing.

In this context, the phenomenon of population aging emerges as one of the natural outcomes of the demographic transition that Algeria is experiencing. It has become an issue attracting the attention of researchers and policymakers due to its potential implications for various economic, social, and health sectors. Accordingly, this research aims to study the changes in the age structure of the population in Algeria and to forecast its future trends up to the year 2045, relying on the Spectrum program for population projections. The descriptive-analytical method has been employed to study the development of the most important demographic indicators affecting the age structure of the population, which include population size, fertility, life expectancy, dependency ratios, and the proportion of the elderly.